By Lorne Epstein, MSOD, SHRM-SCP
What is Confirmation Bias?
Confirmation Bias, or as I like to say, “being right,” is when a person (Every one of us does this) assigns values and judgments when their brain observes the world around them. Using confirmation bias does not mean you are incorrect; it means you came to your answer in a particular way. We are examining this distinction because there are times when confirmation bias does not correctly inform us.
You and I (yes, I include myself in this mess) make unfounded assumptions, take mental shortcuts, and allow biases to hijack logic, all leading to decisions and actions that fail to satisfy our needs and wishes. A shortcut word to describe this is Heuristics. An example is if you see a person walking down a street at 3 am and, concerned, you decide to walk across the street. Your brain is using this mode to evaluate and has probably used a heuristic to assess the situation instead of a complete thought-out deliberation process.
Confirmation biases are not limited to the collection of evidence. Even if two individuals have the same information, their interpretation will be based on their biases.
As a leader, you know you are being impacted by confirmation bias if it has become too easy to make decisions because you are not challenging the currently held assumptions.
Emphasizing the Importance of Diverse Perspectives (challenging assumptions)
Combat confirmation bias by incorporating diverse perspectives into decision-making processes. When teams are composed of individuals with varied backgrounds, experiences, and viewpoints, the likelihood of groupthink[1] diminishes. This diversity fosters a more comprehensive evaluation of information and challenges preconceived notions, leading to more balanced and informed decisions.
Data-Driven Evaluation
Relying on empirical data rather than subjective opinions is crucial in overcoming confirmation bias. Data-driven evaluation methods help ensure that decisions are based on objective criteria rather than personal biases. This approach involves setting clear, measurable standards for evaluating options and outcomes, which can mitigate the influence of individual preferences and assumptions.
Challenging Assumptions
It is important not to follow the herd in decision-making. Actively questioning and challenging assumptions is vital for reducing confirmation bias. Encouraging a culture where assumptions are regularly scrutinized helps prevent the reinforcement of existing beliefs and promotes critical thinking. This practice can be facilitated through regular training and workshops to develop awareness of cognitive biases and techniques to counteract them.
The Challenges of Identifying and Overcoming Biases in Business Decision-Making
Identifying and overcoming biases in business decision-making can be challenging. Biases often operate subconsciously, making them difficult to recognize and address. Organizational culture and dynamics can reinforce biases, mainly if a lack of diversity or an environment discourages dissenting opinions.
Leadership's demonstration of awareness, communicating to everyone that learning is a valuable tool they are implementing to help us improve.
The Significance of Ethics and Integrity in Business
Maintaining ethics and integrity in business is essential for fostering a fair and equitable decision-making process. Ethical decision-making (yeah, I teach that) requires transparency, accountability, and a commitment to doing what is right, even when difficult. Organizations prioritizing ethics and integrity are better equipped to recognize and mitigate biases, ensuring their decisions are effective and just.
The Value of Instantaneous Feedback Loops Using Agreed-Upon Metrics.
A properly constructed feedback loop should provide instant feedback to change one's behaviors and actions to achieve the intended outcome. Most feedback loops have long time lags, information that does not correlate to the goal or is too confusing to act on.
Driving a car (see image below) represents an instantaneous feedback mechanism we experience. The speedometer is the most viewed gauge on your dashboard. Why? You want to ensure you are driving within the legal speed limit, maintaining safety, calculating your time to arrival, complying with a family member's request, ensuring you can stop within the given road conditions, and ensuring you are not late for work (perhaps that is not a thing post-COVID).
Image created by ChatGPT, an AI language model developed by OpenAI.
Implementing feedback mechanisms that provide real-time, data-driven insights will improve your decision-making outcomes. And if they are not, look at the correct metric and use the proper mechanism. These mechanisms should be based on agreed-upon metrics that align with organizational goals and values. Instantaneous feedback allows for timely adjustments and helps ensure that decisions remain aligned with desired outcomes.
A “perfect” solution would be to provide the C-suite, managers, and employees with a dashboard that gives them actionable feedback based on one metric: their decision-making success.
Utilizing AI Systems for Real-Time Feedback
Artificial intelligence (AI) systems can be valuable tools for providing real-time feedback on performance and productivity. For example, AI can help identify potential performance review biases by objectively analyzing data and highlighting inconsistencies. This technology can also monitor decision-making processes to ensure they are based on data rather than personal biases.
For example, Mary’s company now uses performance management software that uses AI for employees' annual reviews. The example given is Mary reviewing her employee, Sue. She feels Sue deserves a 3 out of 5 this year and is disappointed since she thought Sue was a great employee. The software reminds Mary that Sue was on maternity leave for four months, and her average ratings were 4.75 for the past three years. This gives Mary the context she needs to make a better decision.
Regular Measurement and Evaluation
Consistently measuring and evaluating business activities is essential for recognizing whether your choices produce the intended results. Regular assessment helps identify areas where assumptions may need to be revised and ensures that the organization remains agile and responsive to changing circumstances. Check your results with an agreed-upon cadence, and use them to modify every part of the decision-making system, including the people involved, the time allotted, the tools used to assess options, etc.
6 Actions that Combat Confirmation Bias
Outline the Importance of Diverse Teams and Data-Driven Methods:
Diverse teams provide a broader range of perspectives, reducing the risk of confirmation bias.
Data-driven methods ensure decisions are based on objective criteria rather than subjective opinions. Teams create feedback loops, metrics, and performance measures to ensure adoption. Shifts the focus from their feelings to objective reality.
Create a Scorecard to Reduce Bias in System or Interview Evaluation:
Develop a standardized scorecard to evaluate candidates, processes, and systems based on agreed-upon criteria. With hiring, the focus would be on specific knowledge or skills. With a manufacturing process, it would be the time and temperature used to create the product. You would look to throughput, efficiency, and customer satisfaction with systems.
Encourage Challenging Assumptions:
Develop Real-Time Feedback Mechanisms:
Implement systems that provide instantaneous feedback on performance and decision-making processes.
Leverage AI for Objective Insights:
Use AI to monitor performance reviews and decision-making processes, ensuring they are free from bias and based on objective data.
Regularly Measure and Evaluate Activities:
Continuously assess business activities to ensure they achieve desired outcomes and adjust assumptions as needed.
Awareness is Key
Combating confirmation bias in decision-making requires a multifaceted approach emphasizing diversity, data-driven methods, and a commitment to ethics and integrity. Organizations can ensure that their decisions are fair, informed, and effective by developing feedback mechanisms, leveraging AI, and regularly evaluating activities. Implementing these strategies will help create a more inclusive and equitable business environment, ultimately leading to better outcomes for all stakeholders.
Lorne Epstein is a social scientist who facilitates raising awareness for people to mitigate bias in their decision-making, improve psychological safety & ethics, and other topics. Contact Lorne at Lorne@ElectricCow.com or follow him on LinkedIn.
[1] Groupthink (a psychological phenomenon) occurs when the desire for harmony or conformity results in an irrational or dysfunctional outcome.
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